Definições de ação de preço de negociação de forex para nascar

Use a ação do preço para melhorar seus resultados de troca de Forex Se você nos segue aqui no preço que troca o sistema negociando, a seguir deve não ser nenhum segredo a você a respeito de como nós sugerimos que você troca, e that8217s com testes padrões negociando da ação do preço da probabilidade elevada. It8217s verdade que você pode usar ação de preço para melhorar seus resultados de negociação Forex. O problema com a maioria dos comerciantes é que eles não ficar com nada o tempo suficiente para se tornar proficiente com ele ao negociar. Eles tentam algo e se ele falhar uma ou duas vezes, eles estão se movendo para a próxima idéia de negociação, quando eles devem estar encontrando algo que é provado para trabalhar e, em seguida, furar com ele até que eles realmente aprender a usá-lo corretamente. Negociação de ação de preço é a única maneira de ir, e se você ficar com ele o tempo suficiente para aprender a detectar os padrões e realmente ver os preços desdobramento na frente de você, então você pode se tornar um comerciante rentável. A coisa é, ele won8217t vem durante a noite e vai demorar muito trabalho, que a maioria não acredita ou pelo menos eles não estão dispostos a dar o tempo necessário e esforço que vai demorar para aprender adequadamente. Independentemente de quão bom um driver você é, você acha que poderia entrar em um carro amanhã e competir em uma corrida NASCAR e ganhar a primeira vez fora As chances são empilhadas tão fortemente contra você que seria duvidoso. Trading não é diferente, como você está indo contra os melhores comerciantes do mundo. No entanto, se você começou a praticar e aprender todos os dias, eventualmente você pode ser capaz de fazer um grande driver NASCAR, eo mesmo é verdadeiro na negociação. Se você ficar com ele e continuar a aprender, você pode eventualmente aprender a ler um gráfico de preços e, conseqüentemente, tornar-se um comerciante dia de grande ação de preço. Encontramos o seguinte artigo que foi escrito por Johnathon Fox em dailyforex, e tinha o seguinte a dizer sobre como ganhar dinheiro em Forex: Para muitos comerciantes há muito tempo são as esperanças de fazer milhões de dólares durante a noite, e tudo o que eles querem fazer é Parar de perder dinheiro e começar a transformar suas contas comerciais em torno. Há muitos erros que os comerciantes fazem que contribuem para obter-se nesta situação, e este artigo vai cobrir o top 5 coisas que os comerciantes podem fazer para transformar suas contas e desempenho em torno de escolher um método de negociação e aperfeiçoar os comerciantes que vêm para Forex em A maioria dos casos estão olhando para fazer um monte de dinheiro e muito rápido Para conseguir isso, eles começam a perseguir o 8220Holy Grail8221 que irá torná-los todas as suas riquezas. Em vez de olhar para um método que lhes dará um sucesso gradual, eles procuram o último indicador fantasia que vai fazer todo o trabalho para eles. Estou aqui para lhe dizer que todos nós seríamos ricos se isso fosse possível Se você é sério sobre como ganhar dinheiro nos mercados de Forex é hora de você se livrar desta mentalidade e resolver em aprender um método que você pode usar para o longo prazo. Um método que pode ser usado para negociar os mercados com sucesso é a negociação de ações de preço. Preço Ação negociação tem sido em torno de um longo tempo e será em torno de um longo tempo para vir. Ação preço Ações não vai parar de trabalhar cada vez que a dinâmica do mercado mudar. Preço Ação negociação envolve comerciantes aprender a ler o preço bruto em um gráfico, e com foco em alta probabilidade de preços padrões de ação que se repetem. Preço Ação é um método muito simples que a maioria dos comerciantes podem obter a sua cabeça em torno de um pouco de ajuda e educação correta. Uma vez que um comerciante escolheu o método que melhor se adequa ao seu estilo de negociação, eles precisam desistir da idéia do 8220Holy Grail8221 e começar a aperfeiçoar seu método de negociação escolhido. Cortar e mudar os métodos de negociação só leva à confusão e frustração. A única maneira de aperfeiçoar o seu método de negociação escolhido é se comprometer com ele, e praticá-lo até que você aperfeiçoou Aprenda a negociar nos quadros de tempo mais alto Muitos comerciantes têm a idéia errada de que quanto menor o gráfico de tempo, mais chance eles têm de Fazendo um comércio e, assim, ganhar dinheiro. Embora seja verdade que os comerciantes receberão mais sinais quanto menor o quadro de tempo que eles vão para baixo, também é verdade quanto menor o prazo mais falsos sinais existem e mais difícil torna-se a ganhar dinheiro. Os comerciantes podem começar a transformar sua negociação em torno de tomar apenas este ponto em sozinho A maior quadros de tempo são onde a maioria das negociações deve ser feito para aprender comerciantes. Uma das melhores razões para o gráfico diário é muito mais poderoso do que um menor tempo quadros gráficos, como o gráfico 1hr é devido ao tempo que vai para fazer os sinais. Um exemplo disso é uma barra interna. Se vemos uma barra dentro do gráfico de 1 hora, sabemos que o preço não poderia sair do intervalo de velas anteriores por 1 hora. Se no entanto, vemos uma barra dentro do gráfico diário significa que o preço passou por todas as sessões de negociação, incluindo as sessões do Reino Unido e EUA e tem sido incapaz de sair da gama day8217s anterior. Obviamente, uma vela com o valor de 24 horas de informação está nos dizendo muito mais do que a vela composta de apenas 1 hora Devido a este tempo extra que vai para fazer os sinais gráficos diários em comparação com os prazos mais baixos, os sinais são muito mais Confiável e poderoso. Parar assistindo gráficos durante todo o dia Uma vez que um comerciante se comprometeu a negociar apenas os quadros de tempo maiores, como o gráfico diário, agora é hora de virar se livrar de um dos mais amplos erros de negociação propagação lá é: 8220Watching os gráficos All Day8221 This Hábito de negociação é um erro muito grave muitos comerciantes fazem. Se os comerciantes estavam a assistir as paradas o dia todo e não fazer nada, isso seria bom, mas de assistir as paradas todos os comerciantes dia começam a cometer erros, tais como: Entrar comércios quando eles shouldn8217t Tomar comércios off quando eles shouldn8217t Tire lucro quando shouldn8217t Tighten Quando um comerciante se comprometeu a negociar as tabelas diárias só eles só precisam olhar para as suas cartas, uma vez por dia. Isso é ele Quando o mercado fecha para o dia o comerciante deve trocar suas cartas sobre e procurar configurações possíveis do comércio. Se houver um comércio que deve definir a sua entrada, pára e alvos. Se não houver comércio eles precisam desligar o computador e ir embora e fazer outra coisa Não há nada mais que eles possam fazer. O mercado tem que se mover e fará a mesma coisa se você está assistindo ou não. Afaste-se e deixe o mercado fazer sua coisa. Você pode ler o resto do artigo original aqui. Se você assistir nossos vídeos do YouTube, então você me ouviu dizer isso muitas vezes: Prática e rever seus gráficos de negociação diariamente, se você quiser ficar melhor em ação de preço de leitura. Há muito poucas pessoas no mundo que podem ir contra profissionais em qualquer coisa sem praticar primeiro. Se você didn8217t como minha analogia anterior da corrida NASCAR, em seguida, substituir NASCAR com qualquer esporte profissional e você obterá os mesmos resultados. Eu não me importo com o quão bom você é um atleta ou quão rápido você é, você pode esperar para ir para as Olimpíadas e ganhar uma medalha de ouro sem melhorar a sua velocidade e técnicas, e negociação não é diferente. Você deve melhorar suas técnicas, o que se traduz em aprender os momentos mais oportunos para entrar e sair do mercado se você quiser ser rentável. Em primeiro lugar, encontrar uma técnica que funciona, e podemos dizer-lhe que a negociação de ações de preço é uma das melhores técnicas para aprender a negociar rentável. Uma vez que você encontrar a sua técnica desejada, começar a trabalhar nele e don8217t desistir até que você aprenda e pode fazê-lo. Pare de saltar de idéia em idéia sem nunca aprender uma única técnica rentável em primeiro lugar. Comece com um único padrão se necessário e aperfeiçoe-o antes de aprender um segundo. Independentemente de como você fazê-lo, o mais importante, começar e ficar com ele até que você aprenda. Se você está disposto a colocar no tempo, esforço e ficar com ele, você realmente pode usar a ação de preço para melhorar seus resultados de negociação Forex. Como fazer (e perder) 2.000.000 Day Trading: The System 038 A história Ive tentou e falhou Escreva este artigo dez vezes. Mesmo depois que terminei, achei que era terrível. Na verdade, eu estava com medo de compartilhar a história. Enviei-o para um leitor que me perguntou sobre negociação. Ele respondeu: 8220 É diferente da maioria que eu li, porque não há nenhuma besteira para tentar olhar passado e todos os seus leitores apreciam that.8221 Um tipo de introdução ao dia de negociação Isto é sobre as lições que aprendi durante a negociação. As armadilhas que as pessoas caem e as formas pelas quais as pessoas se destroem. Há também o tempo que eu levantei dinheiro para um fundo de hedge. Então meu sócio girou 30.000 em 2.000.000 em três meses. Levou apenas dois meses para transformar 2.000.000 em praticamente zero. Entraremos em detalhes mais tarde. Quero dizer comerciante como no dia comerciante. A partir do momento em que eu estava 15-22 eu sentei na frente de 6 monitores de computador assistindo gráficos subir e descer. Por que eu não estou fazendo isso agora eu não fiz o bilhão de dólares antes de bater 22. Comerciantes são únicos em que eles podem ser o único grupo de pessoas mais delirantes do que os empresários. Eu digo isso com amor. De acordo com meus cálculos, não há nenhuma razão que eu não poderia ter feito um bilhão de dólares dia de negociação. Não importa que 99,9 dos comerciantes são perdedores. Esqueça o fato de que 80 dos comerciantes estão deprimidos homens de meia-idade passando por sua crise de meia-idade. (Eu vi um na biblioteca local ontem, parecia que ele estava evitando a sua esposa. Eu vi outro hoje na Starbucks, ele didn8217t comprar uma bebida e ele cheirava engraçado.) Eu era a exceção. Eu estava indo para obter o meu dia de pagamento de bilhões de dólares antes do meu aniversário de 30 anos. E eu realmente fui a exceção. Eu fiz um bom pedaço de dinheiro antes de parar. Eu tratei a coisa com respectnot algum regime get-rich. Quebra o meu coração quando vejo as pessoas me dizem que o dia de comércio e, em seguida, vê-los após algum boletim de notícias bullshit ou algum treinador com um registro fudged pista. Quando eu vejo alguém assistindo outro algoritmo FOREX passo de vendas ou drooling sobre algum relatório penny-estoque Eu só quero sacudi-los e dizer Você tem potencial Pare de deixar-se obter scammed Parar scamming yourself Se você comércio sem a preparação adequada youd ser melhor em Vegas . Isto não é um exagero. Não só há bebidas gratuitas, senhoras sexy procurando diversão, e uma seleção obscena do Cirque du Soleil mostra suas chances em praticamente qualquer mesa de casino são melhores do que os mercados. Eu significo isto literalmente (como 8220literally8221 como definido por um dicionário) que você é garantido para perder o dinheiro sobre todo o período aceitável de tempo a menos que você aprender trocar bem. E então mesmo quando você está preparado e você sente que sabe tudo o que há para saber sobre os mercados, você ainda não está garantido para ganhar. Isso é apenas a natureza da besta. É por isso que eu comecei a meditar em 16. Negociação é intensa. Na faculdade eu faria 5000 no meio da classe e, em seguida, perder 10.000 algumas horas mais tarde, enquanto assistia a um filme. Esse tipo de coisa lhe dá uma perspectiva diferente sobre o dinheiro. Uma última coisa antes de entrar na carne do post: Como Garrett disse, isso é provavelmente diferente do que qualquer outra coisa que você leu na negociação. Por que eu não quero te vender nada. Eu não dou a mínima se você troca ou não. Na verdade, eu prefiro que você não troque a maioria das pessoas seria melhor passar a vida fazendo outras coisas. Atualmente não estou negociando. Eu verifiquei meus métodos e eles ainda funcionam, então as informações são atuais, eu simplesmente não estou gastando minha vida usando isso. O foco isnt sobre o methodalthough Ill dar-lhe todos os detalhes sujos. Você tem que ser fluido como um comerciante. Os fundos de hedge superiores no mundo contratam matemáticos, físicos, meteorologistas que estão constantemente mudando algoritmos. Como você competir com essas pessoas Você não. Isso fará mais sentido mais tarde. Eu não tenho nenhuma estaca em você me ouvir. Para real: nada está à venda. Eu não vou ensinar você a negociar. Pessoas que ensinam as pessoas como negociar ou executar boletins dando idéias comerciais ganhar mais dinheiro vendendo suas idéias do que usando suas idéias. Todos eles têm suas próprias histórias sobre por que eles estão sendo tão generosos com seu conhecimento SECRETO, mas seu touro. (Não que toda essa informação é ruim, é só que você tem que ser cuidadoso para seguir alguém cegamente.) (Espere, então quais são os meus incentivos para escrever isso? Eu só quero que você goste de mim! Eu quero que você goste de mim e deste artigo tanto Que você subscrever para o nosso boletim e eu posso escrever mais coisas. Também, eu estive pensando em escrever isso por muito tempo e eu tive que fazê-lo.) I8217m não tentando convencê-lo que o mundo está acabando. Ok, ok seu tempo para a carne e batatas. Carne e batatas Ha Você estará comendo ouro líquido com as informações Im prestes a dar-lhe Sim, você também pode ser um garoto rico de Instagram Apenas brincando, você provavelmente não vai fazer nada com ele. (E isso é provavelmente uma coisa boa.) Alguém fez 2.000.000 com essa informação embora. De verdade, eu vi isso acontecer. Antes de chegar a essa história, we8217re vai passar por algumas das armadilhas principais novos (e experientes) comerciantes cair em. Nota: Ive forneceu os significados de algumas palavras, mas eu vou deixar o trabalho de glossário para você, Google e outros lugares na Internet que como definir palavras mais do que eu. O que não fazer Por que começar com o que não fazer Porque não fumar cigarros é mais saudável do que comer todos os orgânicos. Porque se você perder todo o seu dinheiro, em seguida, negociação torna-se tipo de impossível, não é Você pode fazer muito por evitar o mau em oposição à busca de bom. Paul Graham, fundador do Y-Combinator NÃO FAÇA: Use dinheiro real antes de saber o que você está fazendo Warren Buffetts Uma regra em investir é manter seu capital. Ele diz que seus arrependimentos foram em sua maioria atos de omissão em vez de comissão. Isso é porque ele não joga dinheiro em algo que ele doesnt pensa workand assim que ele perde a ganhar dinheiro em bolhas de tecnologia, mas não perde o rabo quando eles busto. (Honestamente, Warren Buffett não é um comerciante que ele joga o longo prazo e não fez nada, mas adquirir grandes empresas ou peças enormes de them8211 por décadas, ele é um dos mundos melhores getters dinheiro, mas não alguém que lhe dará qualquer coisa útil na negociação. Isso significa para você Papel comércio antes de colocar qualquer de seu capital na linha. (Negociação de papel é quando você faz comércios com uma conta falsa. Há toneladas de plataformas que você pode usar para isso, eu usei TD Ameritrades pensar ou nadar.) Como você sabe quando começar a colocar dinheiro na linha Quando um sistema provou Próprio. Quando tem um sistema comprovado comprovado para mim, um mês de negociação rentável (e um número estatisticamente significativo de comércios). Isso infere o próximo NÃO FAZER: NÃO FAZER: Comércio de dia sem um sistema / método Se você está negociando willy-nilly youre vai perder. Eu nem sei exatamente o que willy-nilly meios, mas se você tem que perguntar se o seu comércio iria cair sob a categoria willy-nilly, então parar de comer direito famping agora Você não é George Soros, você não começa a trocar em seu intestino. Você não precisa de um algoritmo em execução em um supercomputador, mas você precisa de algum tipo de sistema que não vai deixar você ser um idiota. Você vai dizer a si mesmo que você não precisa de uma defesa contra ser um idiota. Isto é você sendo delirante. Acredite em mim. Eu me traí muitas vezes antes de me comprometer com meus sistemas. Você não ganha todas as vezes se você seguir seus métodos, mas você faz um inferno de muito melhor. Como faço para criar um sistema Então o que faz um bom sistema Bem entrar em mais tarde, quando eu mostrar-lhe o sistema exato que eu usei (não pule para ele, este post será inútil se você fizer isso). Por agora, isso será útil quando se pensa sobre como abordar a sua negociação: Ofensa. Ele diz exatamente quando e como entrar em um comércio. Talvez seus 3 dos 5 requisitos devem ser cumpridos para investir 1 ação, se 5 de 5 são satisfeitas 2 partes. Esta é uma linha de defesa emocional: negociação vai fazer você pensar que você pode fazer um milhão de dólares hoje, isso é muito emocionante, você vai querer fudge as regras. Warren Buffett só quebrou suas regras quando ele ficou entediado quando você está entediado. Se você acha que pode aproveitar mais oportunidades no mercado, em seguida, alterar o seu sistema, testá-lo, e implementá-lo. Lembre-se: nenhuma defesa willy-nilly. Diz-lhe exatamente como sair de um comércio. Isso significa parar as perdas. (Estas são ordens que o começ automaticamente fora de um comércio quando o youre do mercado bate em um determinado preço.) Uma régua comum é fazer exame de 50 de sua posição (seu dinheiro no mercado) em um determinado ponto do lucro, talvez 100 talvez 68.2 (Este é um número Fibonacci que é extremamente popular entre os comerciantes). Ele também define exatamente o quanto de uma perda você está disposto a assumir um determinado comércio. Isso deve ser determinado antes de entrar em um comércio. Se você não colocar um stop loss em seu cérebro vai justificar a sua posição mais e mais para você, enquanto seu comércio esperançoso acaba perdendo você sua casa (e família). Isso é ainda mais importante do que uma ofensa forte não ir quebrando Adicionando a uma posição. Às vezes você pode querer fazer a sua posição maior como o mercado se move em seu favor. Você precisa ter um conjunto de regras determinando como você vai fazer isso. Não complique. Cada ferramenta parece tão poderosa, tão profética No início eu tinha o hábito de acrescentar sinais que eu iria encerrar em meu sistema. Eu teoria que deve fazer o seu comércio melhor. Talvez seja para um físico de Harvard, não era para mim. Quanto mais complexo eu fiz meu sistema o pior que eu fiz, mais e mais. Gostaria de começar simples, parafuso-lo, adicionando um monte de coisas que as pessoas recomendadas, em seguida, voltar para a prancheta. O melhor método que eu já usei foi morto-simples (que é o bem chegar a um pouco). Dê a si mesmo uma tonelada de espaço para o fracasso. Oito dos dez negócios fracassaram para mim. Isso era bom porque quando eu bati um vencedor ganhou grande. Mas se você está promediando oito dos dez negócios falhando, então será comum falhar 20 vezes em uma fileira. Eu passei por estrias de 40 negociações falhadas em uma fileira. Você tem que ser capaz de sobreviver a esses. Minha recomendação seria arriscar 1 (ou menos) do dinheiro que você está disposto a perder em cada comércio. Isso lhe dá 100 chances de comércios fracassados ​​antes de ir busto. Não deveria acontecer. (É claro, quando eu tinha vinte anos eu estava arriscando 10 em alguns comércios se eu fui busto não era tão grande de um negócio.) Tem que trabalhar. Novamente, teste a maldita coisa. Se ele doesnt fazer dinheiro falso, então certamente não vai fazer dinheiro real. Há um tempo e lugar para jogar cautela ao vento e apenas indo para ele. Negociação é o pior lugar para esse tipo de besteira. A adrenalina que vem do potencial de perder milhares de dólares em um minuto é a missão de enoughyoure é manter a cabeça fria. NÃO: Get Big Fast Se você fizer isso direito, você tem o potencial para fazer um monte de dinheiro mais rápido do que qualquer outro método lá fora. (Excluindo empresários que são insanamente talentosos e simultaneamente insanamente sortudos.) As chances potenciais são que ele não vai dessa forma. As chances são youll perder dinheiro. Ou você vai ganhar dinheiro, se sentir como um deus, o comércio como um deus, e perder todo o seu dinheiro. Quando você coloca dinheiro real na linha, o jogo muda completamente novamente. Você acha que testou seu método. Youve ido o primeiro mês e tudo parece sólido. Ótimo. Então você põe o dinheiro na linha. A merda fica real. Você não pode parecer seguir o sistema como você fez no mês do teste. O mercado parece totalmente estranho novamente. Você não acredita em mim, isso é bom. Para você é diferente. Eu não sei quantas vezes eu disse a mim mesmo que. Eu sou diferente. Não importa, porém, youll sentir o mesmo que eu fiz. Para poupar algum dinheiro, confie em mim, comece pequeno. NÃO: Comércio Quando você é emocional Eu disse que eu comecei a meditar em 16. Não é porque eu estava animado sobre estar no momento ou que eu estava na filosofia oriental. Foi porque se eu não consegui trocar. Id confundi-lo. James Altucher fala sobre como ele criou algoritmos para cada um de seus métodos e, em seguida, deixá-los de comércio para ele, enquanto ele estava deprimido e perder tudo. Eu não era esperto o suficiente para isso (e meus métodos, inevitavelmente, tinha algum nível de subjetividade para eles) e então eu manualmente entrou todos os meus negócios. (Entrar em um comércio ou colocar em um comércio ou entrar em uma posição apenas significa youre compra (ou venda curta) em um mercado.) James começou a comércio emocionalmente porque ele não estava realmente de negociação. Se eu ficasse emocional, ficaria boba. Youve começou um sistema assim que este shouldnt importa. Mas isso importa. Imagine isto: Youve apenas ido longo o mercado de futuros de milho para 2 contratos. Youre acima de 5000 em um comércio em duas horas. Awesome, right Hell no Isso é o que acontece nos dois lados (lado 1 e lado 2) do seu cérebro: 1. Eu quero tirar este 5000 da mesa agora, isso é uma grande vitória. 2. Sim, mas olhe para este patternthis poderia ser o BIG tradethis poderia ser 100.000 se eu adicionar contratos. 1. Sim, mas é mais importante para conservar o capital. 5.000 é uma grande vitória. Talvez eu pudesse tirar metade da mesa. 2. Não explodi-lo. Isso é 50.000 em vez disso 1. Foda-se. O sistema diz para vender agora. 2. Sim, mas o sistema não é perfeito. Você conseguiu mesmo assim você pode mudar isso. Você pode sentir isso. Mas, o sistema E depois e depois. Eu disse para imaginar, mas que o diálogo interno exato é algo que eu passei por vinte vezes por dia todos os dias por um longo tempo. Quando eu fiz a escolha certa (A escolha certa é seguir o sistema, não ganhar dinheiro. Muitas pessoas ganham dinheiro com um comércio de merda e, em seguida, acho que eles têm algum talento especial, claro que eles vão busto dentro do trimestre.) Eu fiz A escolha certa quando eu deixar a razão reinar. Quando eu fiz a escolha errada Quando eu estava excitada ou assustada. Tanto o medo como a ganância o destruirão. Ive disse isso antes, mas é importante repetir: A. Alguns dias você vai se sentir como um ser humano sem valor que tem feito e nunca vai fazer nada de valor. (Verdadeira ganância que ultrapassa a sua decisão racional, que tem maior ganância tempo em mente. Você vai entrar comércios você arent suposto porque você tem medo de perder. Você vai sair de comércios antes de você deve porque seu estômago é fraco. B. No dia seguinte você fará um comércio vencedor e se sentirá como um deus. Você vai esquecer tudo o que sentiu como perder e você vai fazer comércios fora de seu método. Você vai entrar em negociações que você não deve porque você tem a sensação de que você não pode fazer errado (o mercado pode validá-lo por alguns dias e tornar o problema pior). Você vai ficar em comércios muito tempo, porque você sabe que o mercado irá transformar em sua maneira favorno você poderia estar errado Suas decisões de negociação precisam vir de números e regras predeterminadas. Depois de anos de prática deliberada e sucesso você pode realmente ter uma sensação intuitiva para o mercado. Em seguida, comece a introduzir esses sentimentos em seus sistemas. Antes disso, de jeito nenhum, Jos. NÃO FAZ: Negociar com base em algum sistema comprado ou boletim de notícias Ouça, se alguém tem uma maneira realmente kickass para fazer o comércio de dinheiro que vendê-lo para um fundo de hedge ou usá-lo. Eles não vendê-lo para você por cinco pagamentos fáceis de 300. Dito isto, existem alguns boletins decentes lá fora. O James Dines carta sendo um deles. Pode valer a pena se inscrever para um casal, mas não dependem exclusivamente deles. Experimente suas informações. Testar suas idéias contra o seu método. Não os siga cegamente. Pense sobre os incentivos no trabalho não há nada a seu favor. (Isto significa que, por sinal, não siga o método abaixo sem testá-lo primeiro. Só para você saber se eu estava ativamente negociando agora, provavelmente não teria compartilhado isso.) NÃO: Get Caught Up In Stories se você ver esta imagem 8211 RUN Seu sistema funciona ou não funciona. As pessoas vão elaborar narrativas elaboradas em torno de suas idéias que eles querem que você compre. Eles vão gastar inúmeras horas dizendo-lhe sobre esta coisa e por que o seu próximo levou para torná-lo um milionário. Eles vão assustá-lo, dizendo que você vai perder a próxima grande coisa. Eles vão te dizer que você precisa deles. Você não. Você precisa de um sistema que funcione. Incorporar sua idéia em seu sistema, se você acredita, ver se ele realmente funciona. Se ele não, tirá-lo. NÃO: Comércio Esta não é uma piada. A maioria das pessoas não deve trocar. Se você não está disposto a dar tudo para o mercado, então não vale a pena mexer com. Faça o que Warren Buffett diz e coloque seu dinheiro no Vanguard SampP 500 fundo de índice e ir sobre sua vida. (Ou investir em seu próprio negócio.) Naturalmente, tão terrível como a troca é, seu também freaking awesome para os povos direitos. Até hoje eu recebo um sentimento fuzzy quente quando vejo uma tabela de preços. Eu não estou brincando. Eu me sinto em casa e vejo padrões e eu tenho a vontade de mergulhar em Talvez eu vou novamente. Quem sabe. Para real: você só deve negociar se você está extremamente atraído por ela e se você pode se comportar racionalmente (enquanto permanecendo delirante). Bem. Aqui está: O Método que eu estava em pausa antes de ir para o meu primeiro ano de faculdade. Eu estava negociando, fazendo muito bem. Eu estava tendo uma manhã particularmente boa quando recebi uma mensagem de imagem no meu telefone. Era uma captura de tela da minha conta de parceiros comerciais. Algumas semanas antes eu recebi um que disse 250.000. Ele tinha começado com 30.000 apenas algumas semanas antes. Eu freaking espantado. Este dia especial, no entanto, eu não acredito que era real. A imagem lida: 2.000.000 (e mudança, o que quer que). Esse foi um momento santo moly, para dizer o mínimo. Eu olhei para ele por um longo tempo. Eu texted para trás, este isnt real. Como isso aconteceu Como ele transformou 30.000 em 2.000.000 em três meses Bem, o método abaixo. Mas também (E este é um maciçamente importante, mas.) Ele era mais bolas para a parede do Id visto ninguém nunca. Todos os lucros foram imediatamente jogados de volta ao comércio, de modo que sua posição aumentou como um louco. Eu realmente usei o termo grampeado para a parede. Ele estava insanamente sortudo. Veja que a tabela de preços de futuros de madeira abaixo Você vê aquele movimento maciço para baixo Sim, ele conseguiu isso no topo e montou-o direto para o fundo. (Ele tinha uma posição curta, significando que ganhava dinheiro quando o preço caiu.) Ele tem poderes mentais. Esta é uma movene Esta combinação acabou com perdas maciças nos próximos dois meses. Ele ainda terminou com um retorno impressionante de cinco meses, mas você era um milionário por um mês e, em seguida, não bem, isso dói. Eu usei este método com minhas bolas sobre um pé fora da parede e fez grandes retornos. Eu quase dobrei minha conta pessoal em seis meses e, em seguida, foi capaz de arrecadar dinheiro de investidores com esse histórico. Nota: Este método é especificamente útil para futuros de mercadorias, mas pode ser aplicado mais amplamente com certas modificações. Aqui está o que nós olhamos para: 1. Multi-Year High ou Low Este método exigiu consciência constante de movimentos de preços, mas não muita ação. Com este método você provavelmente não estará fazendo mais de dois comércios uma semana muitas vezes você vai fazer uma a cada duas semanas. It8217s também um pouco único em que estamos a tentar localizar tops e fundos de mercados, algo que a maioria das pessoas vão dizer é suicídio: 8220 como pegar uma faca falling8221. Eu só olhei para cima da tabela de preços de futuros de milho em barcharts e achei sentado direito em uma baixa de vários anos. Este é um gráfico semanal (cada barra representa uma semana) para que possamos ver que we8217ve perdeu o fundo na semana passada. Podemos ampliar para ver se isso teria nos apresentado uma oportunidade. O primeiro é o mais simples, este é o primeiro filtro que eu uso para classificar através de gráficos: é em vários anos alto ou baixo Você pode ver isso rapidamente e ignorá-lo se a resposta for não. Se é, em seguida, vá em para um olhar mais atento. (Eu vou manter abas em um monte de cartas sentado nessas áreas, enquanto eu espero que os outros requisitos sejam preenchidos.) 2. Martelo, Morning Doji Star, ou Abandonado Baby Candlestick Nota: I8217m não vai ficar muito técnico here8211 apenas o que você Precisam ter uma compreensão básica e começar. Eu recomendo que você leia tudo em StockCharts8217s Stock School, se você tem qualquer tipo de compromisso com isso. Castiçais são apenas uma outra maneira de ver as informações de preços em um gráfico. Uma barra vazia / branca significa que o preço fechou mais alto do que começou para o período de tempo medido pela barra. Um vermelho é o oposto, o fundo da barra vermelha é o preço de fechamento. A área skinny é a área cheia coberta pelo movimento do preço durante o período coberto pela barra. A segunda coisa que eu iria procurar é uma manhã diária Doji Star ou Hammer Candlestick. Um castiçal de martelo: uma estrela de manhã Doji: Aqui está um bebê abandonado: Tenha em mente que queremos esses padrões em um multiyear alta ou baixa. De preferência com um intervalo. Isso significa que, para o gráfico de milho acima, gostaríamos que o preço para abrir abaixo onde it8217s atual. A lacuna mostra um último impulso para cima. Os dois candelabros mostram a consolidação dos movimentos de preços. Basicamente, o preço não foi capaz de seguir através de 8211 sinalizando que este movimento está fora de gás. Agora, se você não ver um destes imediatamente, desconto de don8217t totalmente. Verifique o terceiro requisito. 3. Os produtores estão ao seu lado General Mills compra um shitton métrica de trigo. Eles movem esse mercado grande momento. Seria bom saber o que empresas como a General Mills estão fazendo para que pudéssemos estar ao seu lado, certo. E nós podemos. E é muito legal. Agora, a General Mills e outros grandes produtores usam os mercados de futuros para proteger as flutuações de preços com mais freqüência do que negociar para um lucro como nós. Portanto, não os tomamos com um grão de sal a menos que estejam fazendo movimentos significativos. As empresas que negociam sobre uma certa quantidade de contratos são obrigados a relatar os negócios que fazem. Estes são coletados em relatórios chamados Compromisso de Relatórios Trader. Você pode obter esses relatórios aqui. Você pode obtê-los de uma forma mais útil (um gráfico) aqui. Veja um exemplo. Eu só olhei para cima um gráfico promissor de Soy Bean Futures: Podemos ver um grande multiyear baixo (que é mais evidente no gráfico semanal, note que este é um diário) e alguma consolidação. Ok, vamos ver o que os produtores estão fazendo8211esta informação está disponível para nós na linha vermelha no mini-gráfico abaixo do principal. Podemos ver aqui (e aqui - apenas CTRLF 8220soy8221 e you8217ll vê-lo) que os produtores (a linha vermelha) ainda são significativamente curto soja e eles aren8217t em qualquer pressa para obter long (8220get long8221 significa comprar). Por causa deste I8217m não vai fazer um comércio, mas eu vou manter um olho sobre isso nas próximas semanas para ver se uma instalação mais limpa emerge. (Uma configuração basicamente significa que as caixas para o seu método são marcadas.) Queremos ver os produtores fazer um movimento significativo na direção do nosso comércio potencial. Aqui eu gostaria de ver um grande movimento em direção a zero. Este é um tópico fascinante. Confira Stocks de Comércio e Commodities com os Insiders: Segredos do COT Report. It8217s freaking incrível. E se o preço 40 parece muito alto, reconsiderar seriamente a negociação como uma opção. 4. (Opcional: Para os insanos) Balls-to-the-Wall-Re-Buy Meu parceiro foi capaz de fazer retornos tão insano porque ele pegou uma grande corrida e alavancou-o para o punho. Ele colocou uma posição enorme e, em seguida, usou todos os lucros de cada movimento para fazer sua posição ainda maior. Isso significa que você tem que acertar um home run. I Sinceramente can8217t recomendar ninguém fazer isso. This method alone demands more risk than most (even though you can use mini contracts to take smaller positions). I played more conservatively and did well. When I trade again, I8217ll trade even more conservatively. Capital is the first requirement for trading8211without it you8217re out of the game. 5. Stop-Loss You need to set a stop-loss immediately after entering your position. I would give different markets different leeway depending on how widely they fluctuated normally. Corn might fluctuate 10 points daily on average while Crude Oil might fluctuate 20. I would give Oil more wiggle room ( not willy-nilly, mind you) The most important thing is that you set a stop loss with a loss that you can manage. It doesn8217t matter how perfect a setup might appear, it could still lose money. You need to be prepared to take losers. Ideally your stop loss is below the previous low. Sometimes you won8217t be able to catch it that close, but if you can you8217re golden. (You trade seeing more of a movement for taking on less risk.) 6. Managing the Trade Let8217s say we get long Soy Beans. We8217ve got our stop-loss right under the previous low. Version 1: The market moves against us and takes out our stop (this means the stop-loss is hit and we are taken out of the trade, we are 8220flat8221). This is the most common scenario. Version 2: This is the more interesting version8211the market moves in our favor Yeehaw We8217re not out of the woods yet though. Obviously we would love the market to take off in the direction of our trade and lead us to our fortune. If this happens then count your blessings and remember the feeling8211because it won8217t come often. Even when we get a winning trade, we have to work with it. It will go up a while and then back down, then up and then down. When we talk about 8220managing a trade8221 we are really talking about three things: 1. Adding to the position. We talked about this a little earlier. Essentially you can add to a position that8217s working to double down. Say you get a strong movement in your favor, then it pulls back a bit to consolidate, you can add to your position to double-down on the move. 2. Adjusting our stop-loss. This is the one you will use most often (as in every winning trade). I like to move my stop-loss to my entry price as soon as possible. This means that if that market moves against you then you still don8217t lose any money. I will normally wait until there is a new solid level of 8220support8221 created and then move the stop loss up to this new level. A support level is a price at which there is resistance to the market moving below. This is usually created by a small pullback. Continue to adjust your stop losses as the market moves in your favor. 3. Reducing our position (taking money off the table). I alternated between taking 50 of my trade off the table when I had 100 and never reducing a trade unless I got out completely. Often taking 50 or 30 at a certain point is a good way to lock in trades, the only problem is that it limits your upsides. 4. Exiting. At certain reversal patterns I would exit a trade and not wait for it to hit a stop-loss. how we used to trade That8217s It Scary simple, right (There are a few minor things omitted just for the sake of simplicity8230 these items decided most of the decisions.) You probably noticed that I didn8217t give you any examples of perfect patterns (if you go back and look at a more magnified version of the lumber one you8217ll see a perfect setup). That8217s because it takes a massive amount of work to find a great trade. I may have to look through 200 more charts before finding a decent setup. If you8217re really interested in this, go to BarCharts (or download a trading platform, I like thinkTDA) and look through every single commodity futures chart you can find. Look at a 5 year chart, then if one looks promising look at a 1 year chart, then a 6 month. Keep a list of ones that look promising that you need to keep an eye on. Review these every day. Once a week review ALL the commodities again. When you find a good trade, make it on paper. Either literally with paper or with your program (again thinkTDA is awesome8230 I don8217t even have an affiliate link for them, they8217re not sponsoring this post8230 but now I kind of think they should :P). When you start to get good at it, dip a toe in with real money. That8217s 4 steps and a ton of time. I was going to recommend more books for you to read but I8217m not. If you want them in the comments I8217ll offer some up but the important thing is for you to actually apply this knowledge first. Go and spend an hour looking at charts right now. Questions This post ended up being fairly long8230 but the topic is huge . I glossed over a lot of technical stuff on purpose. The goal here was to give you an idea of what it is to be a trader and an example of a method to begin using. I8217m happy to answer any questions you8217ve got Just put them in the comments below or email me. Thanks man Really glad to hear you dig it Funny about your purpose for meditating. I8217m hitting up an 8-day meditation retreat this Friday for the same purpose. I hope to share some in-depth material on meditation in the weeks to follow about developing a habit of meditation (latest research on meditation, habit formation, yadda yadda). I love the stuff man. Best gift I8217ve been given in life along with a great family and good health. I8217m excited to hear about your meditation experience I did a 10 day no speaking/no reading vipassana retreat outside of Seattle (dhamma. org) and it was one of the hardest/best things I8217ve ever done Beautiful. That8217s what I8217ll be doing this Friday (missing 2 days for work). I hit it up 1-3 times a year. Definitely one of the hardest/best things I8217ve done too. Glad to hear you got a bunch of value from it as well. After I write-up some of the new meditation content, I8217ll shoot you an email to get your feedback on it. See what thoughts you have. Thanks for sharing Any reason you don8217t trade now Couple of items to emphasize from your post 1. Stay SMALL. I mean REALLY SMALL. If you get nervous over the risk, you are trading too big 2. Options are really the way for retail investors. Staying small and be a collector of premium imo is the real way to trading success. It may feel like a turtles game waiting for theta to decay but probabilistic trading is much more suited than watching charts all day. Interesting stuff I never got into options deeply but would definitely consider them. Stay small indeed It is not exactly true 99.9 percent of traders fail. It is actually closer to 80. There is a lot of break even as well. How do I know. I am a gambler, who trades basketball. Rich No. But I have several years of 50 to 2000. I use Betfair out of England. I say gambler, but really I trade. I have a very simple system. Trading baskets mostly, NBA. It usually works, but last year failed. I moved to the country side of life, and the Interent kept failing as I traded. In simple terms, it is the life of IBM, all of it, in about 2.5 hours. I just take 4 point leads, set a winning sell point, and sell if they lose the 4 points. And yes, it can lose 23 times in a row You can trade anything, I won 300 one night half wasted on Obama to win. Not that I am a democrat, it looked like a good trade Plus, I was bored. lol I do like to read about other traders. Facinates me. Thanks I take what they know, and see if I can use it. Seriously, I was going to try import export. But I am too sick to do it. Epileptic. A bad one. My driving could cause Nascar like accidents My real goal in the whole sports trading experiment, is to see if one can make a living with it. You are correct. Bullshit abound But I did find a few real stories of real people doing it. I only want about 50K a year. I8217m happy. My biggest problem, is not the mental parts. It is the low liquidity, by times, and a max win I can acheive per day. I never add to trades. Fails horribly in baskets. I built a baseball model, that allows to me trade, easily. No plans to sell it, well not in the way most people would. I just want it built for me, by programmers so I can use it. They can send me commission money if they want, for people who subscribe to the charts. It really is like a stock chart So when I see things like you post, I am very interested. Have you ever considered, the angle of decent Say a 50 day moving average, moving through a 200 hundred day one, at a super fast decline Like 45 instead of 15 over a certain time frame. I gotta check that out. And yes, stockcharts is a great place to learn - Allan. Curious and always learning trader. P. S. Two things to add. Trading is a loney and anti-social way to live. Those two things, I am almost sure, are the driving forces of failure or success. Be anti-social when you must. Don8217t drink when lonely. lol FOREX is next for me, but real slow8230 Your PS is solid lol8211 I should have mentioned some of the mental effects of spending 14 hours alone staring at a bunch of screens8230 it8217s brutal. I8217m interested in your basketball 8220trading82218230 Will plays with this a bit for fun and does well. (We8217ve been playing pop8217a8217shot like crazy.) Thanks a ton for sharing your story. I8217ve done a bit with moving averages and other indicators 8211 they8217ve done well but I made way more money with other things. FOREX Good luck sir But honestly I think you should consider something a bit cleaner i8217m still waiting for those spreadsheets. remember those xtz teas from the rock and java days can you imagine forex from big red it8217s only english that8217s binary. I8217m 28 years old and I never went to high school. but i did learn one thing8230. two cats and a dog death. two dogs and a cat death. 8220two cats and a dog death. two dogs and a cat death.8221 8211 that8217 really the only thing we need to remember What does that saying mean I googled but found nothing. I enjoyed the article by the way, bookmarked it and will re-read it several times when I feel like I8217m straying from my mental focus during my trades. Thanks for sharing I8217m not trying to play doctor, but have you ever tried a paleo or ketogenic diet for your epilepsy That8217s interesting Stephen, I never knew paleo could help with something like that. 8212Is that a grain brain thing I8217m from the original import empire startup group and really loved this article This really peaked my interest in the markets again. Back when I was in college I was able to trade some and payed for my college outright That was one of the best feelings ever Maybe I8217ll get back into it now. Gotta get to work on importing though8230. Awesome, read. I love the no BS approach to telling it like it is. I think it is a fascinating subject with never-ending possibilities and risks. Currently, I am in the import empire class and doing some consulting while working full-time. By reading this article, I realized that if I want to trading, I pretty much have to put all my efforts and energy into this with no other obligations for awhile. So for now, I will leave this as a future project. Thanks again for sharing your story and look forward to reading more posts. I think what you guys are doing at Startupbros is amazing. The value behind your content is just so much greater than most any other type of entrepreneurial blog/books/content etc. I8217ve read Self-Made U 3 times now. I guess all I8217m saying is thank you and keep it coming Thanks a ton for taking the time to comment. It8217s great having you in the importing course8211it sounds like that8217s definitely the best way for you to be spending your time/resources. That is a HUGE compliment We try hard to give the best content possible. It8217s kind of bizarre selling books. I see them sell on Amazon but I rarely get to interact with people who have read it. So when you tell me that you8217ve read it THREE times8230 well, that makes my freaking day Feel free to drop a line any time See you in the importing group Kyle, Awesome post Not terribly long ago I looked heavily into what avenues of approach their are to successful active retail trading. I found and quickly ran away from all the newsletters teaching 8220perfect penny stock plays8221 and so on (like you warn against) It felt impossible to actually find anyone trustworthy: 8220yeah, pump and dumps8221 (what. No thanks LOL) I eventually found the options trading methodology Tom Sosnoff (who created sink or swim and sold it to TD) teaches at tasty trade He has a site by that name and a youtube channel. His new platform he8217s created is called dough. Dough will show you probability of success, max profit and loss etc on positions before you open them, and it links with your TD account. There are training modules all built in, its all free (except you can pay for access to see all his actual trades I think, but not necessary). I was going to rehash what I8217d learned listening to him but I8217d be at risk of losing something in translation, not actually having implemented it myself I don8217t feel expert enough, but suffice it to say I think its worth a look if you/anyone gets into options ever. Those with options experience 8211 your thoughts Anyway, what turned me off for now was the same trading time for money making me cringe idea but if I ever get into trading, that8217s the methodology I will test (with paper money to start, of course ) For now, going to keep learning in the importing course Loving what we8217ve gone through so far Keep up the great work Great to see you here. I never looked into Tom Sosnoff8211thanks a ton for telling me about him I8217m a big fan of thinkorswim so I will most definitely be checking out his other work. A couple of people in the comments mentioned options but I haven8217t gotten into them myself. The Importing course is a much more solid base I think8211I8217m pumped to see what you do with that in the coming months I8217ll see you in the group How much capital did you start out with and how much would you recommend a newbie start with I started with just about 1k 8211 I wasn8217t trading full commodity futures contracts until I had about 10k in the account (even then, the risk per trade vs the account was huge), plenty of people start with just a few hundred though. 500 seems to be a good minimum. This doesn8217t mean that you shouldn8217t start practicing though You may spend 6 months paper trading before you find something that you can begin making money with, so if you8217re interested, begin studying now regardless of the amount of money you have to play with. What percentage of the 10k were you risking per trade So I stayed between 1-5 risk for most of the time8211I increased risk slightly as I became more competent. I actually traded S038P 500 futures before doing commodities in a big way. Once I hit that I increased the risk tolerance of my personal account to 10 per trade (sometimes even more). The trades just worked so often (and were somewhat rare) that I felt alright with this. This was somewhat suggestive. Sometimes a trade was just so perfect-I could get in with a tiny risk for the potential reward or the setup was lined up perfectly-that I had to go bigger. If I did get punished for a big trade then I would pull back my size by a lot. Also, remember that the 10k was capital I was willing to lose 8211 I would have been happy to seed another 10k to go again. Great article Kyle, I believe lots of traders will benefit from the truths you have shared. I am also monitoring Commitments of Traders data, and advise everybody to do the same. This is not another fancy indicator that derives itself from price data, but comes from an entirely different source, and lets you peek inside the structure of the market. Here are some more stuff on COT analysis if you are interested: cotbase/resources/books By the way the first book I read on COT analysis was the same you recommend, from Larry Williams (excellent stuff) Another great work is from Steve Briese. Note: I am the co-owner of the above site, cotbase. that we created from our Excel tables that monitored the changes in COT data. Once the tables became so big that Excel could barely handle them, we asked a programmer to build an app from it and also open it for everybody on a subscription basis. Hey Balint8211great to have you swing by I was HUNGRY for your service when I was trading. It would have been a HUGE time saver 8220Warren Buffetts 1 rule in investing is to keep your capital. He says that his regrets have mostly been acts of omission instead of commission8221 Haha I JUST watched a video on Youtube (with Buffett amp Bill Gates) where he said this verbatim. I am frequently astounded by the synchronicity in your articles and my own life, Kyle On a sidenote, I think Buffett and Munger have a ton of useful best practices for personal development. I do love some synchronicity It always feels like there8217s a group of people following similar threads of ideas/thinking/action8230 it8217s interesting to see the variations in them They do have some great personal development ideas out there. I love Munger8217s idea that you should leverage your own circle of competance instead of tryingt o compete outside of it. What up Kyle long time no see, just read your post it was very interesting. do you have any info/tips on more of a long term position I actually do have some ideas for longer positions8211 send me an email over at kyle at startupbros dot com with some details about what you8217re thinking and let8217s chat. Good to hear from you. To me this is a lot like playing poker. You can be the best player around, but even then you are only going to win about 65 percent of the time. And if you don8217t play within the limits of your bankroll you can go broke easily. We are talking about binary options now right The ones that will shift any 5 seconds Were not talking about a long time investment where you will buy stocks Hey Pieter, I8217m talking about commodity futures here. No options. But you8217re right about the time frame, I rarely held a position more than a week with this system, never more than two. Absolutely the best write-up about trading I8217ve ever, ever, ever seen Thank you Kyle and thank you StartupBros I am tempted to rattle on about my experiences and thoughts: possibly to vent and hopefully to help by emphasizing what you said. But if your readers really read this 8220manifesto,8221 they can skip reading 99.999 of anything else written on the subject including anything I would say. ( I may be a few 9s short, so please excuse any lack of precision. The accuracy is still there.) Thank you for the high praise Robert I would love to read about your thoughts and experiences if you8217re willing to write them. So, per your invitation to share my thoughts and experiences, I8217ve re-read your post. YES, it is still the best At present, I simply don8217t have the oomph or time to do a thorough post of my own. Instead, I8217m going to just make a few comments. They will primarily reference your fine post. (By the way, the time thing is partly your fault. Your piece on 8220Antifragile8221 has me now poking around in Taleb8217s 300 page 8220Silent Risk8221. Plus, your site has lots of other good stuff.) NUMBER 1: People need to re-read your 8220What Not To Do.8221 There are so many things and ways to trade that whenever people would ask me about trading, I would always start with a few don8217ts and shouldn8217ts. My main shouldn8217t was: 8220You probably shouldn8217t trade.8221 It was accompanied with a statement about why. Your version is: 8220DO NOT: Trade.8221 After that, if we were still talking, I tell them some things they would need to be able to trade effectively: margin account, real time data feed (even for chartists), direct execution broker, etc. AND my one hard rule. The rule is a disguised 8220don8217t lose all your money.8221 I would say: 8220Remember there is always another day if you still have money Base each specific trade, any type of trade, and any system, method or approach you use around this one rule Again, base 8230 8221 Of the two things I feel are a 8220little off8221 about your post (it is still the best I8217ve ever read), not emphasizing 8220capital preservation8221 more heavily is the main one. Of course, one doesn8217t make fantastic money, 30,000 into 2,000,000 in 3 months, by even having the word preservation in one8217s vocabulary. One of my best 8220runs8221 (after having not traded for over 6 months) was to go from 18,500 to 106,000 in exactly 3 months. Of course, the first month, I turned the 18,500 into just over 13,000. End of story. But, as you say later in your 8220What Not To Do8221 section, 8220DO NOT: Get Caught Up In Stories.8221 So, please, please don8217t get caught up My second point of mild disagreement, is with 8220DO NOT: Use Real Money Before You Know What The Hell Youre Doing.8221 Without some 8220Skin In The Game8221, you don8217t Really know what your doing Firstly, you are only going through the motions. This practice is important and needs to be done. One needs one8217s mechanics down and a plan to execute. Good mechanics are needed so one can do what one intends and not amp it up8211going short instead of long, buying/selling too little/much, buying/selling the wrong things, etc. With a plan, one can take a 8220trip8221 and then evaluate and correct or adapt. BUT, I question 8220how much practice8221 is needed without any real risk. Live Action changes the dimensionality of the game. Also, some early light or moderate losses help moderate the impact of stories not ignored, quell mental extrapolations that confuse 8220might be8221 with 8220will be,8221 or more simply dampen greed. NUMBER 2: My last trade was early 2007. Got my ass kicked due to a bad data feed. NUMBER 3: THAT8217S ALL (for now) FOLKS I have been trading binary options for a while now and what i8217ve learnt, is that its not as easy as it seems. It takes work, understanding and time. I have the understanding, its just the time I lack to trade for myself. I8217m a day trader and formerly a market maker of commodity options. Tough business with a lot of hidden risks (mainly revolving around technology. for me anyways). I have enjoyed the consistency and 8212 to use a trading term 8212 high sharpe ratio of returns in importing/selling online. Once the online biz is big enough I8217ll be happy to take more risk trading and potentially hire on a FT quant to run my book. Anyways, cool article. 8212 always looking to chat with solo-traders (dinosaurs) (real traders, not e-traders) Anyone know of anyone good tutorials to learn the mechanics of thinkorswim Thanks for the info. I jus started trading and my system works. I traded paper money for 3 weeks then implemented my system with real money and it works I jus have to have discipline to get out as soon as I hit my quota for today and not be greedy or try to make more. Yea it bothers me sometimes when I see that I could make more but I rather follow my system and be safe cause I make money everyday literally If you8217re making money every day you8217re in the top 99 of traders8230 don8217t get greedy What was the average amount of time you8217d hold onto a single position During the trading I focused on mostly, average was probably 8-10 days if it survived the first day. Most behaved badly immediately and so I got out within hours. What do you think of trend following and more specifically Michael Covel and his books Trend following can work 8211 don8217t know enough about Covel to have an opinion unfortunately I thoroughly enjoyed your post Trading can be lucrative and it is very exciting By following the industry research and opinion and utilizing sound statistical rechnical analysis it is no surprise you have done well I would like to clarify one salient point regarding Warren Buffet and his thoughts on investing. As a professional investor and one follwing his methods I feel wholey qualified to say that while warren advices the unintelligent investor to invest in index funds he advices the professional investor to arbitrage sure things and purchase great businesses at discounts. Personally I have had success using these methods. I had an excellent surplus to the market last year and expect to beat it again this year. If you really Are good at trading I would suggest reading books by Mary Buffet regarding Warrens methods. Be wary of some of the advice regarding stock choices but the math and methods are sound and approachable. Please feel free to email me to discuss it more Awesome write-up8230good job keep it up and expect tons of questions from me later on hehehe very informative Thanks I8217m looking forward to them Hi Kyle, this may be stupid question but, when you say 8220The second thing I would look for is a daily Morning Doji Star or Hammer Candlestick.82218230. Do you mean you want to see these patterns each day, or you want to see these patterns once on the daily graph Great article. Thanks Just one on the daily graph. Glad you8217re actually putting it to use Wondering what you think of Harvey Walsh8217s 8220How to Day Trade Stocks for Profit.8221 I am interested in day trading and look forward to practicing with paper. Thanks for you article. I have never read or heard anything about Walsh8217s book, wish I could be more helpful Thank you for the article It was great 1 question for you: I find myself second guessing myself when something goes wrong, so I set up stop losses and it seems like 99 of the time It stops me out then goes right up from there lol. Any advise on setting up a good stop loss Like is there a range that I should be setting up instead of just setting up what I don8217t want to lose If that8217s happening regularly (and doesn8217t just feel like it is) then you probably want to find new way to set your stops. Just being 8220looser8221 won8217t be helpful though. And setting it up just for a 1 loss (or whatever you8217re willing to risk) isn8217t great either. This is going to vary on your time-frame and risk tolerance, and contract you8217re trading. Usually I would just put a stop below a previous layer of major support. Great article, Kyle I have been paper trading for a few weeks. Thought all was going well so I dipped in this morning. I8217ve been using the, pre-market outbreak on great news. Check it gt ISR The price jumped to 2.17 at open. I paused and was watching on level 2. I ended up getting in at 2.00. The stock was bouncing around from 2.10 to 1.95. I decided to put a stop loss in at 1.92. I had to walk away because of my nerves. BAM Came back about 15 minutes later and my position was sold at 1.92. 1st trade very disappointing. Later in the day I was traveling so I decided to check and see what the price was now (hoping it was much lower so I would feel like I made a great decision) it is 3.05. I look far into the distance and all I could say was S. O.B I sure wished now that I would have known then: put in your stop loss at the previous days low Adding this technique to my trading (please work) No need to pray, just test That8217s brutal though. Let me know how it works for you Thanks for sharing your story, insights, and method. I love reading articles that reinforce positive trading habits. Keeps me honest and builds those effective neural pathways. I am mostly a stock trader. Have you or anyone you know applied this technique to stocks and, if so, how did it fare Also, I am deeply into meditation and personal development. I even keep a blog devoted to my twin interests in trading and meditation. I call it No Trader. If you are interested, you can find it here: jakeyeager Thanks again Kyle I just checked your site out, awesome stuff The technique isn8217t quite as effective for stocks because there isn8217t an equivalent of the COT reports for them. Just skimmed your site, it8217s cool to see you doing so much right. If you end up experimenting with the stuff here let me know how it goes. Great post I sent an email to you Kyle as well Would like to talk more and network. I own a successful ad agency and have since I was 27 8211 I am 33 now. I live in Tampa, too I have always been interested in trading but never took the time to truly learn the business. If you would oblige me, let us chat some You have my email I just submitted and I emailed my phone number as part of that, too. Thank you Kyle for this great blog post It8217s funny how as I read about what NOT to do8230that8217s exactly how I started my trading journey, by doing all the wrong things and lost money doing it Haha It8217s been just over a year and now I am starting to have consistent profits(with losses in there also. About 60 success rate). Working on discipline, cutting losses short, trading the naked chart so i don8217t succumb to analysis paralysis, and trying to stay out of the market as much as possible, until a high probable setup appears. Thank you again and keep up the great inspiring workHow to Make (and Lose) 2,000,000 Day Trading: The System 038 The Story Ive tried and failed to write this article ten times. Even after I finished, I thought it was terrible8211actually I was just scared to share the story. I sent it to a reader who had asked me about trading. He replied: 8220 It8217s different than most that I have read because there is no bullshit to try and look past and all of your readers appreciate that.8221 A Kind of Introduction To Day Trading This is about the lessons I learned while trading. The pitfalls people fall into and the ways people destroy themselves. Theres also the time I raised money for a hedge fund. Then my partner turned 30,000 into 2,000,000 in three months. It only took him two months to turn 2,000,000 into virtually zero. We8217ll get into the details later. I mean trader as in day trader. From the time I was 15-22 I sat in front of 6 computer monitors watching charts go up and down. Why am I not doing it now I didnt make the billion dollars before hitting 22. Traders are unique in that they might be the only group of people more delusional than entrepreneurs. I say this lovingly. According to my calculations, theres no reason I couldnt have made a billion dollars day trading. Never mind that 99.9 of traders are losers. Forget the fact that 80 of traders are depressed middle-aged men going through their mid-life crisis. (I saw one in the local library yesterday, he looked like he was avoiding his wife. I saw another today at Starbucks, he didn8217t buy a drink and he smelled funny.) I was the exception. I was going to get my billion-dollar pay day before my 30 th birthday. And I actually was the exception. I made a nice chunk of money before stopping. I treated the thing with respectnot some get-rich scheme. It breaks my heart when I see people tell me they day trade and then see them following some bullshit newsletter or some coach with a fudged track record. When I see someone watching another FOREX algorithm sales pitch or drooling over some penny-stock report I just want to shake them and say You have potential Stop letting yourself get scammed Stop scamming yourself If you trade without the proper preparation youd be better off in Vegas. This is not an exaggeration. Not only are there free drinks, sexy ladies looking for fun, and an obscene selection of Cirque du Soleil shows your odds at pretty much any casino table are better than the markets . I mean this literally (like 8220literally8221 as defined by a dictionary) you are guaranteed to lose money over any decent period of time unless you learn to trade well. And then even once youre prepared and you feel you know everything there is to know about the markets, youre still not guaranteed to win. That8217s just the nature of the beast. Thats why I started meditating at 16. Trading is intense. In college I would make 5000 in the middle of class and then lose 10,000 a few hours later while watching a movie. That kind of thing gives you a different perspective on money. One last thing before we get into the meat of the post: Like Garrett said, this is probably different than anything else you8217ve read on trading. Why I dont want to sell you anything. I dont give a shit if you trade or not. Actually, I would almost rather you not trade most people would be better off spending their life doing other things. Im not currently trading. Ive double-checked my methods and they still work, so the information is current, Im just not spending my life using it. The focus isnt on the methodalthough Ill give you all the dirty details. Youve got to be fluid as a trader. The top hedge funds in the world hire mathematicians, physicists, meteorologists they are constantly shifting algorithms. How do you compete with these people You dont. This will make more sense later. I dont have any stake in you listening to me. For real: nothing is for sale. Im not going to teach you to trade. People that teach people how to trade or run newsletters giving trading ideas make more money by selling their ideas than using their ideas. They all have their own stories about why they are being so generous with their SECRET knowledge but its bull. (Not that all this information is bad, its just that you got to be carefuldont follow anyone blindly.) (Wait, so what are my incentives for writing this I just want you to like meI want you to like me and this article so much that you subscribe for our newsletter and I can write more things. Also, Ive been thinking about writing this for way too long and I had to do it.) I8217m not trying to convince you the world is ending. Okay okay its time for the meat and potatoes. Meat and potatoes Ha Youll be eating liquid gold with the information Im about to give you Yes, you too can be a Rich Kid of Instagram Just kidding, you probably wont do anything with it. (And that8217s probably a good thing.) Someone did make 2,000,000 with this information though. For real, I watched it happen. Before we get to that story, we8217re going to go through some of the major pitfalls new (and experienced) traders fall into. Note: Ive provided the meanings of some words but Im going to leave the glossary work to you, Google, and other places on the Internet that like defining words more than I do. What Not To Do Why start with what not to do Because not smoking cigarettes is more healthy than eating all organic. Because if you lose all your money then trading becomes kind of impossible, doesnt it You can do a lot by avoiding bad as opposed to seeking good. Paul Graham, founder of Y-Combinator DO NOT: Use Real Money Before You Know What The Hell Youre Doing Warren Buffetts 1 rule in investing is to keep your capital. He says that his regrets have mostly been acts of omission instead of commission. That is because he doesnt throw money at something that he doesnt think will workand so he misses out on making money on tech bubbles but doesnt lose his ass when they bust. (Honestly, Warren Buffett isnt a trader he plays the long term and hasnt done anything but acquire massive companiesor huge pieces of them8211for decades he is one of the worlds best money-getters but not someone who will give you anything useful in trading.) What does this mean for you Paper trade before you put any of your capital on the line. (Paper trading is when you make trades with a fake account. There are tons of platforms you can use for this, I used TD Ameritrades Think or Swim.) How do you know when to start putting money on the line When a system has proven itself. When has a proven system proven itself For me, a month of profitable trading (and a statistically significant number of trades). This infers the next DO NOT: DO NOT: Day Trade Without A System/Method If youre trading willy-nilly youre going to lose. I dont even know exactly what willy-nilly means, but if you have to ask if your trading would fall under the willy-nilly category, then stop trading right famping now Youre not George Soros, you dont get to trade on your gut. You dont need an algorithm running on a supercomputerbut you do need some sort of system that wont let you be an idiot. You will tell yourself you dont need a defense against being an idiot. This is you being delusional. Believe me. I betrayed myself too many times before committing to my systems. You dont win every time if you follow your methods but you do do a hell of a lot better. How Do I Create A System So what makes a good system Well get into this more later when I show you the exact system I used (dont skip to it, this post will be useless if you do that). For now, this will be helpful when thinking about how to approach your trading: Offense . It tells you exactly when and how to enter a trade. Maybe its 3 of the 5 requirements must be met to invest 1 share, if 5 of 5 are met 2 shares. This is one line of emotional defense: trading will make you think that you can make a million dollars today, this is very exciting, you will want to fudge the rules. Warren Buffett only broke his rules when he got borednotice when youre bored. If you think you can take advantage of more opportunities in the market then alter your system, test it, and implement it. Remember: no willy-nilly Defense . It tells you exactly how to exit a trade. This means stop losses. (These are orders that automatically get you out of a trade when the market youre in hits a certain price.) A common rule is to take 50 of your position (your money in the market) at a certain profit point, maybe 100 maybe 68.2 (this is a Fibonacci number that is extremely popular among traders). It also defines exactly how much of a loss you are willing to take on a certain trade. This must be determined before you enter a trade. If you dont put a stop loss in your brain will justify your position over and over to you while your hopeful trade ends up losing you your house (and family). This is even more important than a strong offense dont go broke Adding to a position. Sometimes you may want to make your position bigger as the market moves in your favor. You need to have a set of rules determining how youll do that. Dont complicate it. Every tool seems so powerful, so prophetic Early on I had a habit of adding signals that I would wrap up into my system. I theory they should make your trading better. Maybe it does for a Harvard physicist, it didnt for me. The more complex I made my system the worse I did, over and over. I would start simple, screw it up by adding a bunch of things people recommended, then go back to the drawing board. The best method I ever used was dead-simple (thats the one well get to in a little bit). Give yourself a ton of room for failure. Eight out of ten trades failed for me. That was fine because when I hit a winner it won big. But if youre averaging eight out of ten trades failing, then it will be common to fail 20 times in a row. Ive gone through streaks of 40 failed trades in a row. Youve got to be able to survive those. My recommendation would be to risk 1 (or less) of the money youre willing to lose on each trade. That gives you 100 chances for failed trades before you go bust. It shouldnt happen. (Of course, when I was twenty I was risking 10 on some trades if I went bust it wasnt that big of a deal.) It has to work. Again, test the damn thing. If it doesnt make fake money then it certainly wont make real money. There is a time and place for throwing caution to the wind and just going for it. Trading is the worst place for that kind of bullshit. The adrenaline that comes from the potential of losing thousands of dollars in a minute is enoughyoure mission is to keep a cool head. DO NOT: Get Big Fast If you do this right, you have the potential for making a lot of money faster than any other method out there. (Excluding entrepreneurs who are insanely talented and simultaneously insanely lucky.) The potential chances are it wont go that way. Chances are youll lose money. Or youll make money, feel like a god, trade like a god, and lose all your money. When you put real money on the line the game completely changes again. You think youve tested your method. Youve gone the first month and everything looks solid. Great. Then you put money on the line. Shit gets real. You cant seem to follow the system like you did in the test month. The market seems totally foreign again. You dont believe me, thats fine. For you its different. I dont know how many times I told myself that. Im different. It doesnt matter though, youll feel it the same as I did. To save yourself some money though, trust me, start small. DO NOT: Trade When Youre Emotional I told you I started meditating at 16. Its not because I was excited about being in the moment or that I was into Eastern philosophy. It was because if I didnt I couldnt trade. Id mess it up. James Altucher talks about how he created algorithms for each of his methods and then let them trade for him while he was depressed an losing everything. I wasnt smart enough for this (and my methods inevitably had some level of subjectivity to them) and so I manually entered all my trades. (Entering a trade or putting on a trade or entering a position just means youre buying (or selling short) into a market.) James got to trade emotionally because he wasnt actually trading. If I got emotional then I would get silly. Youve got a system so this shouldnt matter. But it so matters. Imagine this: Youve just gone long the corn futures market for 2 contracts. Youre up 5000 on a trade in two hours. Awesome, right Hell no This is what happens in the two sides (side 1 and side 2) of your brain: 1. I want to take this 5000 off the table now, thats a great win. 2. Yeah, but look at this patternthis could be the BIG tradethis could be 100,000 if I add contracts. 1. Yeah, but its more important to conserve capital. 5,000 is a great win. Maybe I could just take half off the table. 2. Dont blow it. Thats 50,000 instead 1. Fuck. The system says to sell now. 2. Yeah, but the system isnt perfect. You made it anywayyou can change it. You can feel it 1. Yeah. But, the system And then on and on. I said imagine but that exact inner-dialogue is something I went through twenty times a day every day for a long time. When did I make the right choice (The right choice being following the system, not making money. A lot of people make money with a shitty trade and then think they have some special talent of course they go bust within the quarter.) I made the right choice when I let reason reign. When did I make the wrong choice When I was either excited or scared. Both fear and greed will destroy you. (Immediate greed that overtakes your rational decisionwhich has longer term greed in mind.) Ive said this earlier, but its important to repeat: A. Some days you will feel like a worthless human being who has done and never will do anything worthwhile. You will enter trades you arent supposed to because youre afraid of missing out. You will exit trades before you should because your stomach is weak. B. The next day you will make a winning trade and feel like a god. You will forget whatever it felt like to lose and you will make trades outside of your method. You will enter trades you shouldnt because you have the feeling that you cant do wrong (the market may validate you for a couple days and make the problem worse). You will stay in trades too long because you know that the market will turn in your favorno way could you be wrong Your trading decisions need to come from numbers and predetermined rules. After years of deliberate practice and success you may actually get an intuitive feel for the market. Then begin introducing those feelings into your systems. Before then, no way Jos. DO NOT: Trade Based on Some Purchased System or Newsletter Listen, if someone has a really kickass way to make money trading they sell it to a hedge fund or use it themselves. They dont sell it to you for five easy payments of 300. That being said, there are some decent newsletters out there. The James Dines letter being one of them. It may be worth signing up for a couple, but dont rely solely on them. Experiment with their information. Test their ideas against your method. Do not follow them blindly. Think about the incentives at work there is nothing in your favor. (This means, by the way, don8217t follow the method below without testing it first. Just so you know8211if I were actively trading it right now I probably wouldn8217t have shared it.) DO NOT: Get Caught Up In Stories if you see this image 8211 RUN Your system either works or it doesnt. People will devise elaborate narratives around their ideas they want you to buy into. They will spend countless hours telling you about this thing and why its the next took to make you a millionaire. They will scare you by telling you youre going to miss out on the next big thing. They will tell you that you need them. You dont. You need a system that works. Incorporate their idea into your system if you believe in it, see if it actually works. If it doesnt, take it out. DO NOT: Trade This isnt a joke. Most people shouldnt trade. If youre not willing to give everything to the market then its not worth messing with. Do what Warren Buffett says and put your money in the Vanguard SampP 500 index fund and go about your life. (Or invest in your own business.) Of course, as terrible as trading is, its also freaking awesome for the right people. To this day I get a warm fuzzy feeling when I see a price chart. Im not joking. I feel at home and I see patterns and I get the urge to dive in Maybe I will again. Who knows. For real: you should only trade if you are extremely drawn to it and if you can behave rationally (while remaining delusional). Alright. here it is: The Method I was on break before going into my junior year of college. I was trading, doing pretty well. I was having a particularly good morning when I received a picture message on my phone. It was a screenshot of my partners trading account. A couple weeks prior I received one that said 250,000. He had started with 30,000 only a few weeks before. I was freaking amazed. This particular day, though, I didnt believe it was real. The image read: 2,000,000 (and change, whatever). That was a holy moly moment, to say the least. I stared at it for a long time. I texted back, This isnt real. How did that happen How did he turn 30,000 into 2,000,000 in three months Well, the method below. But also (And this is a massively important but.) He was more balls to the wall than Id seen anyone ever before. Every bit of profit was immediately thrown back into the trade so his position ballooned like crazy. I actually used the term stapled to the wall. He was insanely lucky. See that lumber futures price chart below You see that massive move down Yeah, he got that at the top and rode it straight to the bottom. (He had a short positionmeaning he made money as the price dropped.) He does have mental powers. THAT is a movene This combination ended up with massive losses in the next couple months. He still ended with an awesome five-month return but you were a millionaire for a month and then not well, it hurts. I used this method with my balls about a foot off the wall and made great returns. I nearly doubled my personal account in six months and then was able to raise money from investors with that track record. Note: This method is specifically useful for commodity futures but can be applied more widely with certain modifications. Here is what we looked for: 1. Multi-Year High or Low This method required constant awareness of price movements but not a lot of action. With this method you probably wont be making more than two trades a weekoften youll make one every other week. It8217s also a bit unique in that we are trying to spot tops and bottoms of markets, something that most people will tell you is suicide: 8220like catching a falling knife8221. I just looked up the Corn Futures price chart at barcharts and found it sitting right at a multi-year low. This is a weekly chart (each bar represents one week) so we can see that we8217ve missed the bottom last week. We can zoom in to see if that would have presented us an opportunity. The first is the simplest, this is the first filter I use to sort through charts: is it at multiyear high or low You can see this quickly and skip it if the answer is no. If it is then go in for a closer look. (I will keep tabs on a bunch of charts sitting at these areas while I wait for the other requirements to be filled.) 2. Hammer, Morning Doji Star, or Abandoned Baby Candlestick Note: I8217m not going to get too technical here8211just what you need to have a basic understanding and get started. I recommend you read everything at StockCharts8217s Stock School if you have any sort of commitment to this. Candlesticks are just another way to view pricing information on a chart. An empty/white bar means that the price closed higher than it begun for the period of time measured by the bar. A red is the opposite, the bottom of the red bar is the closing price. The skinny area is the full area covered by price movement during the period covered by the bar. The second thing I would look for is a daily Morning Doji Star or Hammer Candlestick. A Hammer Candlestick: A Morning Doji Star: Here is an Abandoned Baby: Keep in mind we want these patterns at a multiyear high or low. Preferably with a gap. That means, for the corn chart above, we would want the price to open below where it8217s current. The gap shows one last push up. The two candlestick show consolidation of price movements. Basically, the price wasn8217t able to follow through8211 signaling that this movement is out of gas. Now, if you don8217t see one of these right away, don8217t discount it totally. Check for the third requirement. 3. The Producers Are On Your Side General Mills buys a metric shitton of wheat. They move that market big time. It would be nice to know what companies like General Mills are doing so we could be on their side, right Yeah. And we can. And it8217s pretty awesome. Now, General Mills and other large producers use futures markets to hedge price fluctuations more often than trading for a profit like us. So we don8217t take them with a grain of salt unless they are making significant movement. Companies that trade over a certain amount of contracts are required to report the trades they make. These are collected in reports called Commitment of Trader Reports. You can get these reports here. You can get them in a more useful form (a chart) here . Let8217s see an example. I just looked up a promising chart of Soy Bean Futures: We can see a great multiyear low (which is more obvious in the weekly chart, note that this is a daily) and some consolidation. Okay, let8217s see what the producers are doing8211this information is available to us in the red line in the mini-chart below the main one. We can see here (and on here - just CTRLF 8220soy8221 and you8217ll see it) that producers (the RED line) are still significantly short soybeans and they aren8217t in any rush to get long (8220get long8221 means to buy). Because of this I8217m not going to make a trade but I am going to keep an eye on this over the next few weeks to see if a cleaner setup emerges. (A setup basically means the boxes for your method are checked off.) We want to see the producers make a significant move in the direction of our potential trade. Here I would want to see a large movement toward zero. This is a fascinating topic. Check out Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report. it8217s freaking amazing. And if the 40 price tag looks too high, seriously reconsider trading as an option. 4. (Optional: For the insane ones) Balls-to-the-Wall-Re-Buy My partner was able to make such insane returns because he caught a great run and leveraged it to the hilt. He put on a huge position and then used all the profits from each movement to make his position even bigger. That means you8217ve got to hit a home run. I honestly can8217t recommend anyone do that. This method alone demands more risk than most (even though you can use mini contracts to take smaller positions). I played more conservatively and did well. When I trade again, I8217ll trade even more conservatively. Capital is the first requirement for trading8211without it you8217re out of the game. 5. Stop-Loss You need to set a stop-loss immediately after entering your position. I would give different markets different leeway depending on how widely they fluctuated normally. Corn might fluctuate 10 points daily on average while Crude Oil might fluctuate 20. I would give Oil more wiggle room ( not willy-nilly, mind you) The most important thing is that you set a stop loss with a loss that you can manage. It doesn8217t matter how perfect a setup might appear, it could still lose money. You need to be prepared to take losers. Ideally your stop loss is below the previous low. Sometimes you won8217t be able to catch it that close, but if you can you8217re golden. (You trade seeing more of a movement for taking on less risk.) 6. Managing the Trade Let8217s say we get long Soy Beans. We8217ve got our stop-loss right under the previous low. Version 1: The market moves against us and takes out our stop (this means the stop-loss is hit and we are taken out of the trade, we are 8220flat8221). This is the most common scenario. Version 2: This is the more interesting version8211the market moves in our favor Yeehaw We8217re not out of the woods yet though. Obviously we would love the market to take off in the direction of our trade and lead us to our fortune. If this happens then count your blessings and remember the feeling8211because it won8217t come often. Even when we get a winning trade, we have to work with it. It will go up a while and then back down, then up and then down. When we talk about 8220managing a trade8221 we are really talking about three things: 1. Adding to the position. We talked about this a little earlier. Essentially you can add to a position that8217s working to double down. Say you get a strong movement in your favor, then it pulls back a bit to consolidate, you can add to your position to double-down on the move. 2. Adjusting our stop-loss. This is the one you will use most often (as in every winning trade). I like to move my stop-loss to my entry price as soon as possible. This means that if that market moves against you then you still don8217t lose any money. I will normally wait until there is a new solid level of 8220support8221 created and then move the stop loss up to this new level. A support level is a price at which there is resistance to the market moving below. This is usually created by a small pullback. Continue to adjust your stop losses as the market moves in your favor. 3. Reducing our position (taking money off the table). I alternated between taking 50 of my trade off the table when I had 100 and never reducing a trade unless I got out completely. Often taking 50 or 30 at a certain point is a good way to lock in trades, the only problem is that it limits your upsides. 4. Exiting. At certain reversal patterns I would exit a trade and not wait for it to hit a stop-loss. how we used to trade That8217s It Scary simple, right (There are a few minor things omitted just for the sake of simplicity8230 these items decided most of the decisions.) You probably noticed that I didn8217t give you any examples of perfect patterns (if you go back and look at a more magnified version of the lumber one you8217ll see a perfect setup). That8217s because it takes a massive amount of work to find a great trade. I may have to look through 200 more charts before finding a decent setup. If you8217re really interested in this, go to BarCharts (or download a trading platform, I like thinkTDA) and look through every single commodity futures chart you can find. Look at a 5 year chart, then if one looks promising look at a 1 year chart, then a 6 month. Keep a list of ones that look promising that you need to keep an eye on. Review these every day. Once a week review ALL the commodities again. When you find a good trade, make it on paper. Either literally with paper or with your program (again thinkTDA is awesome8230 I don8217t even have an affiliate link for them, they8217re not sponsoring this post8230 but now I kind of think they should :P). When you start to get good at it, dip a toe in with real money. That8217s 4 steps and a ton of time. I was going to recommend more books for you to read but I8217m not. If you want them in the comments I8217ll offer some up but the important thing is for you to actually apply this knowledge first. Go and spend an hour looking at charts right now. Questions This post ended up being fairly long8230 but the topic is huge . I glossed over a lot of technical stuff on purpose. The goal here was to give you an idea of what it is to be a trader and an example of a method to begin using. I8217m happy to answer any questions you8217ve got Just put them in the comments below or email me. Thanks man Really glad to hear you dig it Funny about your purpose for meditating. I8217m hitting up an 8-day meditation retreat this Friday for the same purpose. I hope to share some in-depth material on meditation in the weeks to follow about developing a habit of meditation (latest research on meditation, habit formation, yadda yadda). I love the stuff man. Best gift I8217ve been given in life along with a great family and good health. I8217m excited to hear about your meditation experience I did a 10 day no speaking/no reading vipassana retreat outside of Seattle (dhamma. org) and it was one of the hardest/best things I8217ve ever done Beautiful. That8217s what I8217ll be doing this Friday (missing 2 days for work). I hit it up 1-3 times a year. Definitely one of the hardest/best things I8217ve done too. Glad to hear you got a bunch of value from it as well. After I write-up some of the new meditation content, I8217ll shoot you an email to get your feedback on it. See what thoughts you have. Thanks for sharing Any reason you don8217t trade now Couple of items to emphasize from your post 1. Stay SMALL. I mean REALLY SMALL. If you get nervous over the risk, you are trading too big 2. Options are really the way for retail investors. Staying small and be a collector of premium imo is the real way to trading success. It may feel like a turtles game waiting for theta to decay but probabilistic trading is much more suited than watching charts all day. Interesting stuff I never got into options deeply but would definitely consider them. Stay small indeed It is not exactly true 99.9 percent of traders fail. It is actually closer to 80. There is a lot of break even as well. How do I know. I am a gambler, who trades basketball. Rich No. But I have several years of 50 to 2000. I use Betfair out of England. I say gambler, but really I trade. I have a very simple system. Trading baskets mostly, NBA. It usually works, but last year failed. I moved to the country side of life, and the Interent kept failing as I traded. In simple terms, it is the life of IBM, all of it, in about 2.5 hours. I just take 4 point leads, set a winning sell point, and sell if they lose the 4 points. And yes, it can lose 23 times in a row You can trade anything, I won 300 one night half wasted on Obama to win. Not that I am a democrat, it looked like a good trade Plus, I was bored. lol I do like to read about other traders. Facinates me. Thanks I take what they know, and see if I can use it. Seriously, I was going to try import export. But I am too sick to do it. Epileptic. A bad one. My driving could cause Nascar like accidents My real goal in the whole sports trading experiment, is to see if one can make a living with it. You are correct. Bullshit abound But I did find a few real stories of real people doing it. I only want about 50K a year. I8217m happy. My biggest problem, is not the mental parts. It is the low liquidity, by times, and a max win I can acheive per day. I never add to trades. Fails horribly in baskets. I built a baseball model, that allows to me trade, easily. No plans to sell it, well not in the way most people would. I just want it built for me, by programmers so I can use it. They can send me commission money if they want, for people who subscribe to the charts. It really is like a stock chart So when I see things like you post, I am very interested. Have you ever considered, the angle of decent Say a 50 day moving average, moving through a 200 hundred day one, at a super fast decline Like 45 instead of 15 over a certain time frame. I gotta check that out. And yes, stockcharts is a great place to learn - Allan. Curious and always learning trader. P. S. Two things to add. Trading is a loney and anti-social way to live. Those two things, I am almost sure, are the driving forces of failure or success. Be anti-social when you must. Don8217t drink when lonely. lol FOREX is next for me, but real slow8230 Your PS is solid lol8211 I should have mentioned some of the mental effects of spending 14 hours alone staring at a bunch of screens8230 it8217s brutal. I8217m interested in your basketball 8220trading82218230 Will plays with this a bit for fun and does well. (We8217ve been playing pop8217a8217shot like crazy.) Thanks a ton for sharing your story. I8217ve done a bit with moving averages and other indicators 8211 they8217ve done well but I made way more money with other things. FOREX Good luck sir But honestly I think you should consider something a bit cleaner i8217m still waiting for those spreadsheets. remember those xtz teas from the rock and java days can you imagine forex from big red it8217s only english that8217s binary. I8217m 28 years old and I never went to high school. but i did learn one thing8230. two cats and a dog death. two dogs and a cat death. 8220two cats and a dog death. two dogs and a cat death.8221 8211 that8217 really the only thing we need to remember What does that saying mean I googled but found nothing. I enjoyed the article by the way, bookmarked it and will re-read it several times when I feel like I8217m straying from my mental focus during my trades. Thanks for sharing I8217m not trying to play doctor, but have you ever tried a paleo or ketogenic diet for your epilepsy That8217s interesting Stephen, I never knew paleo could help with something like that. 8212Is that a grain brain thing I8217m from the original import empire startup group and really loved this article This really peaked my interest in the markets again. Back when I was in college I was able to trade some and payed for my college outright That was one of the best feelings ever Maybe I8217ll get back into it now. Gotta get to work on importing though8230. Awesome, read. I love the no BS approach to telling it like it is. I think it is a fascinating subject with never-ending possibilities and risks. Currently, I am in the import empire class and doing some consulting while working full-time. By reading this article, I realized that if I want to trading, I pretty much have to put all my efforts and energy into this with no other obligations for awhile. So for now, I will leave this as a future project. Thanks again for sharing your story and look forward to reading more posts. I think what you guys are doing at Startupbros is amazing. The value behind your content is just so much greater than most any other type of entrepreneurial blog/books/content etc. I8217ve read Self-Made U 3 times now. I guess all I8217m saying is thank you and keep it coming Thanks a ton for taking the time to comment. It8217s great having you in the importing course8211it sounds like that8217s definitely the best way for you to be spending your time/resources. That is a HUGE compliment We try hard to give the best content possible. It8217s kind of bizarre selling books. I see them sell on Amazon but I rarely get to interact with people who have read it. So when you tell me that you8217ve read it THREE times8230 well, that makes my freaking day Feel free to drop a line any time See you in the importing group Kyle, Awesome post Not terribly long ago I looked heavily into what avenues of approach their are to successful active retail trading. I found and quickly ran away from all the newsletters teaching 8220perfect penny stock plays8221 and so on (like you warn against) It felt impossible to actually find anyone trustworthy: 8220yeah, pump and dumps8221 (what. No thanks LOL) I eventually found the options trading methodology Tom Sosnoff (who created sink or swim and sold it to TD) teaches at tasty trade He has a site by that name and a youtube channel. His new platform he8217s created is called dough. Dough will show you probability of success, max profit and loss etc on positions before you open them, and it links with your TD account. There are training modules all built in, its all free (except you can pay for access to see all his actual trades I think, but not necessary). I was going to rehash what I8217d learned listening to him but I8217d be at risk of losing something in translation, not actually having implemented it myself I don8217t feel expert enough, but suffice it to say I think its worth a look if you/anyone gets into options ever. Those with options experience 8211 your thoughts Anyway, what turned me off for now was the same trading time for money making me cringe idea but if I ever get into trading, that8217s the methodology I will test (with paper money to start, of course ) For now, going to keep learning in the importing course Loving what we8217ve gone through so far Keep up the great work Great to see you here. I never looked into Tom Sosnoff8211thanks a ton for telling me about him I8217m a big fan of thinkorswim so I will most definitely be checking out his other work. A couple of people in the comments mentioned options but I haven8217t gotten into them myself. The Importing course is a much more solid base I think8211I8217m pumped to see what you do with that in the coming months I8217ll see you in the group How much capital did you start out with and how much would you recommend a newbie start with I started with just about 1k 8211 I wasn8217t trading full commodity futures contracts until I had about 10k in the account (even then, the risk per trade vs the account was huge), plenty of people start with just a few hundred though. 500 seems to be a good minimum. This doesn8217t mean that you shouldn8217t start practicing though You may spend 6 months paper trading before you find something that you can begin making money with, so if you8217re interested, begin studying now regardless of the amount of money you have to play with. What percentage of the 10k were you risking per trade So I stayed between 1-5 risk for most of the time8211I increased risk slightly as I became more competent. I actually traded S038P 500 futures before doing commodities in a big way. Once I hit that I increased the risk tolerance of my personal account to 10 per trade (sometimes even more). The trades just worked so often (and were somewhat rare) that I felt alright with this. This was somewhat suggestive. Sometimes a trade was just so perfect-I could get in with a tiny risk for the potential reward or the setup was lined up perfectly-that I had to go bigger. If I did get punished for a big trade then I would pull back my size by a lot. Also, remember that the 10k was capital I was willing to lose 8211 I would have been happy to seed another 10k to go again. Great article Kyle, I believe lots of traders will benefit from the truths you have shared. I am also monitoring Commitments of Traders data, and advise everybody to do the same. This is not another fancy indicator that derives itself from price data, but comes from an entirely different source, and lets you peek inside the structure of the market. Here are some more stuff on COT analysis if you are interested: cotbase/resources/books By the way the first book I read on COT analysis was the same you recommend, from Larry Williams (excellent stuff) Another great work is from Steve Briese. Note: I am the co-owner of the above site, cotbase. that we created from our Excel tables that monitored the changes in COT data. Once the tables became so big that Excel could barely handle them, we asked a programmer to build an app from it and also open it for everybody on a subscription basis. Hey Balint8211great to have you swing by I was HUNGRY for your service when I was trading. It would have been a HUGE time saver 8220Warren Buffetts 1 rule in investing is to keep your capital. He says that his regrets have mostly been acts of omission instead of commission8221 Haha I JUST watched a video on Youtube (with Buffett amp Bill Gates) where he said this verbatim. I am frequently astounded by the synchronicity in your articles and my own life, Kyle On a sidenote, I think Buffett and Munger have a ton of useful best practices for personal development. I do love some synchronicity It always feels like there8217s a group of people following similar threads of ideas/thinking/action8230 it8217s interesting to see the variations in them They do have some great personal development ideas out there. I love Munger8217s idea that you should leverage your own circle of competance instead of tryingt o compete outside of it. What up Kyle long time no see, just read your post it was very interesting. do you have any info/tips on more of a long term position I actually do have some ideas for longer positions8211 send me an email over at kyle at startupbros dot com with some details about what you8217re thinking and let8217s chat. Good to hear from you. To me this is a lot like playing poker. You can be the best player around, but even then you are only going to win about 65 percent of the time. And if you don8217t play within the limits of your bankroll you can go broke easily. We are talking about binary options now right The ones that will shift any 5 seconds Were not talking about a long time investment where you will buy stocks Hey Pieter, I8217m talking about commodity futures here. No options. But you8217re right about the time frame, I rarely held a position more than a week with this system, never more than two. Absolutely the best write-up about trading I8217ve ever, ever, ever seen Thank you Kyle and thank you StartupBros I am tempted to rattle on about my experiences and thoughts: possibly to vent and hopefully to help by emphasizing what you said. But if your readers really read this 8220manifesto,8221 they can skip reading 99.999 of anything else written on the subject including anything I would say. ( I may be a few 9s short, so please excuse any lack of precision. The accuracy is still there.) Thank you for the high praise Robert I would love to read about your thoughts and experiences if you8217re willing to write them. So, per your invitation to share my thoughts and experiences, I8217ve re-read your post. YES, it is still the best At present, I simply don8217t have the oomph or time to do a thorough post of my own. Instead, I8217m going to just make a few comments. They will primarily reference your fine post. (By the way, the time thing is partly your fault. Your piece on 8220Antifragile8221 has me now poking around in Taleb8217s 300 page 8220Silent Risk8221. Plus, your site has lots of other good stuff.) NUMBER 1: People need to re-read your 8220What Not To Do.8221 There are so many things and ways to trade that whenever people would ask me about trading, I would always start with a few don8217ts and shouldn8217ts. My main shouldn8217t was: 8220You probably shouldn8217t trade.8221 It was accompanied with a statement about why. Your version is: 8220DO NOT: Trade.8221 After that, if we were still talking, I tell them some things they would need to be able to trade effectively: margin account, real time data feed (even for chartists), direct execution broker, etc. AND my one hard rule. The rule is a disguised 8220don8217t lose all your money.8221 I would say: 8220Remember there is always another day if you still have money Base each specific trade, any type of trade, and any system, method or approach you use around this one rule Again, base 8230 8221 Of the two things I feel are a 8220little off8221 about your post (it is still the best I8217ve ever read), not emphasizing 8220capital preservation8221 more heavily is the main one. Of course, one doesn8217t make fantastic money, 30,000 into 2,000,000 in 3 months, by even having the word preservation in one8217s vocabulary. One of my best 8220runs8221 (after having not traded for over 6 months) was to go from 18,500 to 106,000 in exactly 3 months. Of course, the first month, I turned the 18,500 into just over 13,000. End of story. But, as you say later in your 8220What Not To Do8221 section, 8220DO NOT: Get Caught Up In Stories.8221 So, please, please don8217t get caught up My second point of mild disagreement, is with 8220DO NOT: Use Real Money Before You Know What The Hell Youre Doing.8221 Without some 8220Skin In The Game8221, you don8217t Really know what your doing Firstly, you are only going through the motions. This practice is important and needs to be done. One needs one8217s mechanics down and a plan to execute. Good mechanics are needed so one can do what one intends and not amp it up8211going short instead of long, buying/selling too little/much, buying/selling the wrong things, etc. With a plan, one can take a 8220trip8221 and then evaluate and correct or adapt. BUT, I question 8220how much practice8221 is needed without any real risk. Live Action changes the dimensionality of the game. Also, some early light or moderate losses help moderate the impact of stories not ignored, quell mental extrapolations that confuse 8220might be8221 with 8220will be,8221 or more simply dampen greed. NUMBER 2: My last trade was early 2007. Got my ass kicked due to a bad data feed. NUMBER 3: THAT8217S ALL (for now) FOLKS I have been trading binary options for a while now and what i8217ve learnt, is that its not as easy as it seems. It takes work, understanding and time. I have the understanding, its just the time I lack to trade for myself. I8217m a day trader and formerly a market maker of commodity options. Tough business with a lot of hidden risks (mainly revolving around technology. for me anyways). I have enjoyed the consistency and 8212 to use a trading term 8212 high sharpe ratio of returns in importing/selling online. Once the online biz is big enough I8217ll be happy to take more risk trading and potentially hire on a FT quant to run my book. Anyways, cool article. 8212 always looking to chat with solo-traders (dinosaurs) (real traders, not e-traders) Anyone know of anyone good tutorials to learn the mechanics of thinkorswim Thanks for the info. I jus started trading and my system works. I traded paper money for 3 weeks then implemented my system with real money and it works I jus have to have discipline to get out as soon as I hit my quota for today and not be greedy or try to make more. Yea it bothers me sometimes when I see that I could make more but I rather follow my system and be safe cause I make money everyday literally If you8217re making money every day you8217re in the top 99 of traders8230 don8217t get greedy What was the average amount of time you8217d hold onto a single position During the trading I focused on mostly, average was probably 8-10 days if it survived the first day. Most behaved badly immediately and so I got out within hours. What do you think of trend following and more specifically Michael Covel and his books Trend following can work 8211 don8217t know enough about Covel to have an opinion unfortunately I thoroughly enjoyed your post Trading can be lucrative and it is very exciting By following the industry research and opinion and utilizing sound statistical rechnical analysis it is no surprise you have done well I would like to clarify one salient point regarding Warren Buffet and his thoughts on investing. As a professional investor and one follwing his methods I feel wholey qualified to say that while warren advices the unintelligent investor to invest in index funds he advices the professional investor to arbitrage sure things and purchase great businesses at discounts. Personally I have had success using these methods. I had an excellent surplus to the market last year and expect to beat it again this year. If you really Are good at trading I would suggest reading books by Mary Buffet regarding Warrens methods. Be wary of some of the advice regarding stock choices but the math and methods are sound and approachable. Please feel free to email me to discuss it more Awesome write-up8230good job keep it up and expect tons of questions from me later on hehehe very informative Thanks I8217m looking forward to them Hi Kyle, this may be stupid question but, when you say 8220The second thing I would look for is a daily Morning Doji Star or Hammer Candlestick.82218230. Do you mean you want to see these patterns each day, or you want to see these patterns once on the daily graph Great article. Thanks Just one on the daily graph. Glad you8217re actually putting it to use Wondering what you think of Harvey Walsh8217s 8220How to Day Trade Stocks for Profit.8221 I am interested in day trading and look forward to practicing with paper. Thanks for you article. I have never read or heard anything about Walsh8217s book, wish I could be more helpful Thank you for the article It was great 1 question for you: I find myself second guessing myself when something goes wrong, so I set up stop losses and it seems like 99 of the time It stops me out then goes right up from there lol. Any advise on setting up a good stop loss Like is there a range that I should be setting up instead of just setting up what I don8217t want to lose If that8217s happening regularly (and doesn8217t just feel like it is) then you probably want to find new way to set your stops. Just being 8220looser8221 won8217t be helpful though. And setting it up just for a 1 loss (or whatever you8217re willing to risk) isn8217t great either. This is going to vary on your time-frame and risk tolerance, and contract you8217re trading. Usually I would just put a stop below a previous layer of major support. Great article, Kyle I have been paper trading for a few weeks. Thought all was going well so I dipped in this morning. I8217ve been using the, pre-market outbreak on great news. Check it gt ISR The price jumped to 2.17 at open. I paused and was watching on level 2. I ended up getting in at 2.00. The stock was bouncing around from 2.10 to 1.95. I decided to put a stop loss in at 1.92. I had to walk away because of my nerves. BAM Came back about 15 minutes later and my position was sold at 1.92. 1st trade very disappointing. Later in the day I was traveling so I decided to check and see what the price was now (hoping it was much lower so I would feel like I made a great decision) it is 3.05. I look far into the distance and all I could say was S. O.B I sure wished now that I would have known then: put in your stop loss at the previous days low Adding this technique to my trading (please work) No need to pray, just test That8217s brutal though. Let me know how it works for you Thanks for sharing your story, insights, and method. I love reading articles that reinforce positive trading habits. Keeps me honest and builds those effective neural pathways. I am mostly a stock trader. Have you or anyone you know applied this technique to stocks and, if so, how did it fare Also, I am deeply into meditation and personal development. I even keep a blog devoted to my twin interests in trading and meditation. I call it No Trader. If you are interested, you can find it here: jakeyeager Thanks again Kyle I just checked your site out, awesome stuff The technique isn8217t quite as effective for stocks because there isn8217t an equivalent of the COT reports for them. Just skimmed your site, it8217s cool to see you doing so much right. If you end up experimenting with the stuff here let me know how it goes. Great post I sent an email to you Kyle as well Would like to talk more and network. I own a successful ad agency and have since I was 27 8211 I am 33 now. I live in Tampa, too I have always been interested in trading but never took the time to truly learn the business. If you would oblige me, let us chat some You have my email I just submitted and I emailed my phone number as part of that, too. Thank you Kyle for this great blog post It8217s funny how as I read about what NOT to do8230that8217s exactly how I started my trading journey, by doing all the wrong things and lost money doing it Haha It8217s been just over a year and now I am starting to have consistent profits(with losses in there also. About 60 success rate). Working on discipline, cutting losses short, trading the naked chart so i don8217t succumb to analysis paralysis, and trying to stay out of the market as much as possible, until a high probable setup appears. Thank you again and keep up the great inspiring work